Monday, Oct. 26: Nvidia is bouncing, but it has not cleared the test. At 11:03 a.m. ET, NVDA traded at $217.53, up 3.11% from Friday’s $210.96 close. The rebound is real. The trend still needs proof.
The chart explains why. Nvidia closed at $239.24 on Oct. 6, then slid to $210.96 on Oct. 23. Monday’s move puts the stock back near its late-week range, but it remains below the $220 strike that drew a large call sweep. That gap is the story, not the green quote alone.
The latest completed session on the Alpha Dashboard is Friday, Oct. 23. It showed $59.5 million in options premium across 43 trades, with 32 calls and 11 puts. The Dashboard matters here because it lets us compare NVDA’s stock rebound with the actual strikes and hedges traders chose.
I treat the first green session after a slide as a question, not an answer. If the price rises but fresh single-name flow does not follow, the move may be relief rather than a trend turn.
The $220 call and $195 put tell two different parts of Friday’s NVDA story. Map the strikes and expiries with Open AlphaX Options
What the NVDA flow says
The Dashboard’s Friday NVDA rows were not a one-way bet. The largest call sweep was for Nov. 20 $220 calls. It carried $826,000 in premium, with NVDA at $212.65 when the trade hit. Two later-dated prints sat beside it: a Dec. 18 $200 call split worth $618,000, and a Dec. 18 $195 put split worth $619,000.
That pairing is the detail worth keeping. The call sweep points to demand above spot. The put print shows that downside protection was also in play. “Split” flow can reflect a group of fills, not a single clean view. A large premium number is a clue, not proof that one trader expects a straight move up or down.
Zoom out one panel and the contrast gets sharper. ETF/N led Friday’s flow with $26.5 million over 18 bullish orders. Tech showed $10.8 million over 14 bullish orders. The broad tape leaned up, but the largest sector flow sat outside Tech. That is why today’s NVDA bounce needs a single-name check, not just a green index.
The chart leaves two levels in play
Friday’s low was $210.18, just below its $210.96 close. Monday’s 11:03 a.m. quote had climbed to $217.53, while the day’s high stood at $217.74. The next clear reference is $220, the strike on the Dashboard’s Nov. 20 call sweep. These marks frame the setup; they do not predict the next candle.
My checklist is simple:
- Hold the $210 area: Friday’s low is the first line that bulls need to defend.
- Watch the $220 strike: A move through it matters more if fresh call flow appears again.
- Track hedges: More put demand would make the Friday call sweep less conclusive.
Why earnings make this a stock story
Investors face a packed week. Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday, and Amazon follows Thursday. The Federal Reserve also meets Wednesday. Reuters says markets will focus on whether heavy AI spending can produce enough returns, not just on headline growth. That pressure runs straight through Nvidia’s customer base.
The Monday market setup points to the same question: can AI demand pay for the buildout? Nvidia can rise on hope before the reports. The harder test is whether customers defend their spending plans and show progress in revenue, margins, or cash flow.
So keep the Dashboard open beside the chart. If NVDA holds above Friday’s low and fresh call flow returns near $220, the bounce has better support. If the price fades while puts stack up, the stock may still be working through the selloff. The next session’s flow can add context; it cannot settle the earnings debate on its own.
P.S. The $220 call and $195 put give this rebound two sides. See the AlphaX Options flow view as new prints arrive.
Trade Smart, S.E.A.L. Alpha Team
Market context, not trading advice. Dashboard data: S.E.A.L. Alpha Dashboard, Oct. 23 session. Earnings and market context: Reuters, Oct. 26 and Reuters week-ahead coverage.