Hey, Chad Shoop here.
And this market has been relentlessly pushing higher.
I think I have used that word. relentless, more in the past few months than I ever have in my life.
But it’s the only way to describe what we are witnessing.
It just doesn’t give up and, if you’ve been following along, now the market is giving us the all clear – signaling we are in a full-blown bull market once again.
But I’m not buying in.
Not yet anyways.
Here’s why…
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On the surface, you’d be a fool to be hesitant in this market.
It’s in a money-making frenzy at the moment. Tesla shares just surged 40% in just over two weeks.
Nvidia is setting all sorts of records, with the stock up roughly 800% in two years.
All three of the major indexes, S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, are at fresh all-time highs.
The economy avoided a recession and unemployment remains at historical lows.
It doesn’t get any better than that.
There’s just one problem.
That’s how things tend to look just before the top.
Tip of the Stock Market Iceberg
You have to dig a little deeper, go beyond the surface, to see what is really going on.
That’s where it is almost the complete opposite.
Debt, both consumer and government, has ballooned since the pandemic.
Interest rates remain at restrictive levels, meant to contract the economy.
Inflation is still weighing on consumers and corporations, as the battle of pricing higher prices onto consumers is coming to a head.
Nothing has broken yet, which is a good thing.
Because once it starts to break, and I don’t know where it will break, but I believe, without a doubt, it will break.
The dynamics, coming out of a pandemic where the world shut down, creating rampant inflation, followed by high interest rates, is something we have not seen in modern times.
You could always say this time is different.
That we won’t follow a sharp increase in interest rates with a recession and stock market crash.
But, on each occasion since the Federal Reserve has been created, a sharp rising in interest rates that was meant to slow down the economy succeeded, without fail.
It doesn’t happen right away, but within a year and a half or so, from the peak in rates, the economy and stock market have always done their part in contracting and crashing.
This market may seem perfectly fine, but I’m not buying it.
It’s crumbling from within.
And those cracks will show soon enough.
Regards,
Chad Shoop, CMT
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