We’re back. Brief mid-month break is over, and the tape we’re walking into is a different shade than the one we left. The headline writers spent the week calling the AI trade “cool.” The Alpha Dashboard was a step ahead — put sweeps in SMH, NVDA and SPX were stacking on Monday and Tuesday, before the cracks showed up on the screen.
Where the Week Closed
CNBC framed it cleanly: AI cooled, oil sank, semis whipsawed. Micron was the engine and the anchor — a blowout earnings print mid-week that ignited a 19% rally across the chip complex, then gave most of it back by Friday’s close. Here’s where the most-watched AI tickers shut the week:
- NVDA $192.53 (-1.64% Fri, -18.6% from year high of $236.54)
- AVGO $365.02 (-3.67% Fri, -26.3% from year high)
- AMD $521.58 (-2.06% Fri, year high $562.99 still in sight)
- MU $1,132.33 (-6.69% Fri after the +19% week; still +9.5x off the year low)
- VST $163.49 (-2.55% Fri); CEG $264.02 (-1.74%); TLN $404.09 (-3.05%) — the power leg got dragged with the chips
What the Dashboard Was Saying
The leaderboards on the dashboard read like a thesis statement. Bullish: MU, QCOM, NBIS, CLS, DVN — all at +100 trend strength. Bearish: SMH (-100), SPX (-100), NVDA (-100). The largest single bullish flow of the week was MU at $6.6M, matched almost exactly by SMH on the bearish side ($6.2M). Translation: traders bid up the names with idiosyncratic catalysts (Micron’s print, the energy/uranium bid in DVN) while paying up for downside protection on the broad chip basket.
That’s not a “AI trade is dead” tape. That’s a “AI trade is repricing into the names where commitment is showing up in the numbers” tape. Different setup. Different playbook.
On My Radar
- MU follow-through. Earnings was the catalyst, the Friday give-back is the test. If it holds the $1,100 zone, the dashboard’s +100 stays in play. Lose it, and the broader chip basket comes off with it. The Micron line on the Alpha Dashboard trend strength panel is the cleanest tell.
- Quad witching and Q2-end positioning. Tuesday’s the last trading day of Q2. Window-dressing flows into the AI leaders are likely. The dashboard’s sector heatmap will show whether that’s real demand or just pension rebalances.
- Power second-derivative. VST, CEG and TLN all closed red on a week the AI complex was supposed to be celebrating Micron. If they decouple from the chips and find a bid on data-center capex headlines, that’s a setup. If they keep tracking semis lower, the trade is on pause.
It’s a good week to let the dashboard do the heavy lifting and resist the urge to chase whatever rips on Monday’s open. Welcome back.
Trade Smart,
S.E.A.L. Alpha Team