Four in a Row
The S&P 500 closed the week at 6,506 — down 1.51% on Friday alone, and marking the fourth consecutive weekly loss for all three major indices. If that sounds like a slow grind, it is. But the damage is real: the S&P is now down 5.1% for the month, the Nasdaq dropped 2% on Friday, and the Dow shed 444 points to close at 45,577.
Triple witching made Friday worse. Forced delta hedging amplified the selloff, and with VIX closing at 26.78 (+11.3% on the week), options dealers were scrambling to keep up.
Weekly Edge
Start next week with the flow data that moved this one. AlphaX Options — institutional positioning, delivered before the open.
What We Covered This Week
- Monday — Sector Rotation: Energy led (+25% YTD) while tech faded (-3.6%). The flow data showed institutional money rotating hard into defensives. Read it here.
- Wednesday — VIX Term Structure: Post-FOMC, we broke down why VIX stayed bid despite the expected hold. The term structure told the story — backwardation persisting, front-month premium elevated. Read it here.
- Friday — UOA Weekly Recap: The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% but Powell’s hawkish tone sent the Dow down 769 points mid-week. Put/call ratios stuck above 1.15 all month. NVDA, GILD, META, UNG all had notable flow. Read it here.
- Saturday — Crypto Saturday: Bitcoin’s 19% drawdown put on-chain data at extremes not seen since 2021. Put/call OI at the 91st percentile, put premiums at all-time highs — historically a contrarian buy signal. Read it here.
On My Radar
- PCE Friday (Mar 27): Powell flagged services inflation as “frustrating.” This print determines whether the rate path reprices further hawkish or if the market gets a reprieve.
- Oil: Brent above $107, WTI around $98. Any de-escalation in the Middle East flips the energy trade overnight. Any escalation pushes stagflation fears to the front page.
- Post-triple-witching repositioning: Open interest just got reshuffled. Watch for new positioning flows early this week — they’ll signal where the next move comes from.
P.S. Four straight losing weeks means the repositioning flow next week matters more than usual. AlphaX Options tracks it daily.
Trade Smart, S.E.A.L. Alpha Team